Qatar’s assets can weather Iran war, says ratings agency

Qatar’s vast assets should be enough to see the country through the current trade disruption as long as the Iran war does not persist into the second half of the year, according to S&P Global.

The rating agency’s outlook is based on the expectation that disruption around the Strait of Hormuz will not become protracted and that regional security will gradually normalise. 

More than 90 percent of Qatar’s exports pass through the Strait. Pre-war production capacity was about 78 million tons per year, but the state-backed QatarEnergy suspended production after attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City in March. 

“Although we expect a gradual resumption of production in the second half of 2026, we forecast average full-year LNG production to remain about 40 percent below pre-war levels,” S&P said in their latest report.

Supply from the Golden Pass LNG project in the US and planned LNG expansion in Qatar’s North Field is expected to make up for the shortfall from 2027.

S&P Global has affirmed its AA/A-1+ long and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Qatar with a stable outlook.  

Qatar’s economy is forecast to contract by 5 percent in real terms in 2026, following 2.9 percent growth in 2025. Both the fiscal and current account balances are expected to move into small deficits due to disruptions from the Middle East war and its impact on Qatar’s LNG production capacity.

Further reading:

• Qatar pushed into $1.2bn trade deficit by Iran war
• Arab LNG exports slump by a quarter with key facilities damaged
• Energy crisis ‘tip of iceberg’ unless Hormuz reopens

Real GDP growth will average 4.8 percent in 2027-2029, supported by ongoing LNG production expansion, S&P said.

S&P forecasts the fiscal deficit will widen to about 2 percent of GDP in 2026 from 1.2 percent in 2025, as revenue declines to 23 percent of GDP, or $55 billion, in 2026 from 28 percent, around $60 billion, in 2025. 

The government’s economic diversification efforts and the reconstruction of damaged LNG infrastructure will support growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector over the next two to three years, the report said.