FACT CHECK: Current forecasts for oil price surge do not reach P200 per liter

Claim: Fuel prices in the Philippines can reach up to ₱200 per liter because of a drone attack that hit the state-owned Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia.

Rating: FALSE

Why we fact-checked this: Several posts posted in the week of March 9, uploaded separately by three Facebook pages, are spreading the claim. As of writing, the most engaged post among the three had reached 50,000 reactions, 5,900 comments, and 16,000 shares. The posts continue to garner comments and shares. 

The caption in the post states: “Iran pinuntirya ang Saudi Arabia largest oil supplier. Kung magpapatuloy na ganito asahan na lalo pang tataas ang presyo ng gasulina na posibleng tataas sa ₱200 kada litro o ang supply ng gasolina ay maubos na…”

(Iran targeted Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil supplier. If this continues, expect gasoline prices to rise further, potentially reaching ₱200 per liter, or gasoline supplies could run out.)

The facts: During a Senate committee on foreign relations hearing on March 6, the Department of Energy (DOE) suggested that fuel prices will reach up to ₱90 this March, especially for diesel, with DOE Secretary Sharon Garin expecting another hike starting March 16. 

However, while fuel prices have increased to the double digits starting March 10, there are no verified statements that indicate a ₱200 per liter hike on fuel products, particularly nothing from the DOE. Oil firms have also agreed to stagger the hikes instead of implementing a one-time price increase to ease the burden on consumers. 

Moreover, there are ongoing plans to suspend the fuel excise tax, with several bills proposing a temporary suspension or reduction, or granting President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. the authority to suspend the tax himself. There are also proposals by the administration to have targeted fuel subsidies for transport, agriculture, and fisheries, while also offering free bus rides.

Cause of oil price surge: The drone attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil refinery did cause a limited fire, with some refinery units shut down as a precaution, but the supply of petroleum products was not affected, according to a report by Reuters. 

However, due to the US–Israeli attacks on Iran, global transport routes have largely been blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint in the Middle East that covers about 20 to 30 percent of global oil and gas supplies, as several tanker owners suspended oil and gas shipments amid the ongoing conflict in the region.

Hence, a fuel hike is caused by various disruptions, not just from a single drone strike. As these disruptions compound, it is expected to have broader impacts in the global economy. Around 84% of crude oil and condensate shipments from the Middle East are exported to Asian markets, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

The Philippines, which relies heavily on imported fuel, sources roughly 98 percent of its crude oil imports from the Middle East. – Lance Ariel Bustos/Rappler.com

Lance Ariel Bustos is a Rappler intern. He is a third-year political science and Philippine media studies student at De La Salle University Manila, and the current Intermedia Editor of The LaSallian, DLSU’s official student publication.

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