XRP Technical Analysis Feb 1

XRP is trading in a clear downtrend among altcoins, maintaining the LH/LL structure; while stuck at $1.67, a break below $1.50 support could signal trend continuation, while breaking above $1.96 resistance could indicate a structural change.

Market Structure Overview

XRP’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend across multiple timeframes (1D, 3D, 1W). The price is exhibiting a bearish structure characterized by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) in recent periods. With the current price at $1.67, the 24-hour change of %-4.29 confirms the negative pressure. The range has narrowed to $1.50-$1.74 and is unable to hold above EMA20 ($1.88), reinforcing the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend signal is bearish, with resistance positioned at $1.96. Although RSI at 30.05 is approaching oversold territory, the MACD’s negative histogram indicates downward momentum. In the MTF structure, 11 strong levels have been identified: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 2S/3R distribution on 1W, with the weight of resistances increasing downside risk. This structure follows the classic trend definition of the LH/LL pattern; that is, each new high is lower than the previous high, and each low is lower than the previous low. This signals weakening buyers and seller dominance. Structural targets point to a bearish breakdown at $1.0082, while bullish continuation to $2.2411 remains a distant possibility.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, a higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) structure is sought; however, these signals are weak in XRP. Recently, the swing low around $1.50 ($1.5028, score 71/100) was tested as strong support, but the price failed to bounce from there and pulled back to $1.6466 (score 64/100). RSI dipping to 30 levels carries short-term reaction buy potential, but remaining below EMA20 prevents a transition to HH/HL. For a potential bullish CHoCH (Change of Character), the price must break above $1.7581 and higher swing highs (score 65/100) and form new HLs. The current structure does not provide bullish signals despite oversold conditions due to lack of bullish momentum.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is clear with LH/LL: The latest swing high at $1.9595 (score 76/100), along with $1.7581 and $1.6806 (scores 65/100) levels, forms consecutive LHs. With price at $1.67 below these LHs, it is extending LLs toward $1.6466. MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance at $1.96 is strong. This structure shows sellers maintaining power to pull swing lows lower; a break below $1.5028 could accelerate the trend with new LLs. MTF resistance dominance (total 8R vs 6S) supports the downward bias.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) confirms trend changes. For bearish BOS, the critical level is a break below the $1.5028 swing low (score 71/100); this extends the current LL structure and leads to the $1.0082 bearish target. Conversely, for bullish BOS, a close above the $1.9595 swing high (score 76/100) is required – this breaks the LH structure, initiates CHoCH, and opens the door to $2.2411. Intermediate resistances at $1.6806 and $1.7581 must be cleared first. The current $1.67 is below the $1.6806 LH; thus closer to bearish BOS. BOS levels are supported by Fibonacci extensions beyond swing points, for example, resistance cluster on 1W timeframe concentrates at $1.96. Breaks of these levels radically change the structural outlook: upward BOS means transition to HH/HL, downward BOS to deep LLs.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $1.9595 (strongest, score 76/100) – main LH of the bearish structure, aligning with Supertrend. $1.7581 and $1.6806 (score 65/100) form consecutive LHs as resistance. Staying below $1.67 prevents retesting these levels; rejection on retest is key for trend continuation. These swing highs represent buyers’ maximum capacity; breaking them causes structural shift.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $1.5028 (score 71/100) – main support, range lower boundary. $1.6466 (score 64/100), intermediate LL. Price at $1.67 is between these two; a break below $1.5028 triggers bearish BOS. These points define the base of seller pressure; holding them allows short-term bounce, but if LH structure isn’t broken, it’s temporary. MTF 1D/3D supports concentrate here.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $78,979 (-%6.08) in downtrend; Supertrend bearish, supports $78,804/$75,770/$64,655, resistances $80,357/$83,160/$86,776. XRP is highly correlated with BTC (altcoin dynamics); BTC’s LL structure is dragging XRP down. BTC break below $78,804 accelerates XRP $1.50 test; BTC $80,357 BOS opens room for XRP to $1.96. With dominance bearish, caution in altcoins: XRP structure is BTC-dependent, its own BOS should be evaluated in BTC context. If BTC doesn’t recover, XRP LH/LL continues.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

XRP structure dominated by bearish LH/LL; $1.67 squeezed between swing lows. For trend continuation, watch $1.5028 BOS down, for change $1.9595 BOS up. MTF resistance weight and BTC correlation strengthen downside bias; RSI oversold but momentum bearish. Volatility expected around swing levels – structures can change quickly, use levels for trading. Educational note: HH/HL defines uptrend, LH/LL downtrend; confirm with BOS/CHoCH. Detailed data available in XRP Spot Analysis and XRP Futures Analysis.