Bitcoin Tests ETF Holders at Breakeven as Year-End Liquidity Thins

Bitcoin is trading around $88,700, dangerously close to the average cost basis of U.S. spot ETF holders and creating what onchain analysts describe as a natural inflection point heading into the final trading week of 2025.

A substantial portion of ETF capital now sits near breakeven. Either fresh demand materializes to absorb overhead supply, or investors sitting on flat returns reassess exposure before year-end, BRN analysts said. "The market is waiting to see who blinks first," the research firm said in a note on Monday.

Bitcoin briefly touched $90,000 as the week began but couldn't hold, retracing as participation thinned ahead of the Christmas holiday. Ethereum outperformed on a relative basis, briefly reclaiming $3,000, while Solana and BNB consolidated at $126 and $855 respectively.

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization has edged past $3 trillion, reflecting stabilization rather than expansion. With major U.S. markets closed Thursday for Christmas, liquidity is expected to drop sharply, amplifying the risk of exaggerated moves in either direction.

Liquidity picture improving

The Federal Reserve is injecting $6.8 billion this week, bringing total additions to $38 billion over the past ten days. That's not a full easing pivot, but the marginal flow matters when balance sheets are constrained heading into year-end.

At the same time, gold hit a new all-time high at $4,400 this week. That's the signal. Investors are still hedging macro uncertainty rather than leaning into high-beta risk assets. The divergence between gold's strength and Bitcoin's range-bound behavior underscores a preference for traditional macro hedges over crypto exposure, even as liquidity conditions gradually improve, BRN said.

Onchain metrics show capital staying cautious but not fleeing. Transfer volumes remain stable, consistent with a market waiting for clearer catalysts rather than actively de-risking. Futures open interest edged lower, suggesting controlled position reduction rather than forced liquidation. Perpetual funding rates stayed positive despite negative cumulative volume delta, leaving remaining long positions exposed.

The primary downside risk is a clean break below $88,000, which could trigger renewed testing of deeper support levels as ETF holders near breakeven turn defensive. Thin holiday liquidity amplifies this vulnerability. A sustained reclaim of $92,000, conversely, would signal overhead supply is finally clearing, BRN analysts said.

This week's economic calendar is light but relevant. Third-quarter GDP and consumer confidence data released Tuesday will shape risk sentiment heading into the holiday break, followed by jobless claims Wednesday. Any weakness in confidence indicators could tilt sentiment quickly in low-volume conditions.