Crypto investors hoping for a summer rally might need to adjust their expectations. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has shared a new analysis focusing on the ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin ETF (SBIT), a leveraged product that lets traders profit when Bitcoin’s price drops. The chart, originally sent to Brandt by analyst Dan Chesler, shows a grim picture for Bitcoin bulls.
Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin’s price has fallen by nearly 30%. Meanwhile, the SBIT fund has surged over 46% during the same period. That alone suggests the market has been heavily tilted toward sellers.
But Brandt’s main concern comes from a fresh technical signal on the daily chart. SBIT has formed an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. That’s a classic reversal setup, usually pointing to more upside for the fund. In plain terms, that would mean more downside for Bitcoin.
Right now, SBIT is testing a resistance line around $61 to $62. If it breaks above that level, the fund could rally sharply. For Bitcoin holders, that would likely trigger another wave of selling. Brandt noted that leveraged ETFs like SBIT have historically worked in favor of sellers. “Whether you are a bull or bear on BTC, this should be an interesting chart to watch for SBIT,” he said.
Brandt isn’t alone in his cautious view. Analyst Bob Loukas, who tracks Bitcoin cycles, also thinks the market is stuck in a bearish phase. According to Loukas, the current price might already be the cycle low. But he warned that price alone doesn’t signal a recovery. “It’s going to need 3 to 5 months (sideways) to build a base from which the next cycle can launch from,” he explained.
Loukas urged investors not to relax. He advised staying away from speculative digital assets for now. The fact that both Brandt and Loukas see similar signals makes the case for a summer rally look weak.
If SBIT breaks through its resistance line, it would confirm that bearish pressure is still strong. That could keep Bitcoin stuck near its local lows until at least the start of fall 2026. For now, the message from these experienced traders is clear: don’t expect a quick rebound.
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