Bitcoin’s “Mildest” Bear Market Yet: Analysts Split on Timing as Rebound Signals Recovery, Not Reversal

Bitcoin’s (BTC) roughly 50% slide from its 2025 peak ranks as the mildest structural bear market in the asset’s history, Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon said this week, while CryptoQuant’s latest report read the 10% bounce off last week’s US$57,700 (AU$83,088) low as a recovery inside an ongoing bear market.

Leon compared the current peak-to-trough decline of about 50% with the 78% collapse of 2022 and the 84% drawdown of 2018, and noted that Bitcoin’s cycle bottoms have risen across successive cycles. 

The current downturn is about eight months old, he said, compared with the 12 to 13 months earlier bear markets took to find their lows. 

Leon also flagged a split among Bitwise’s institutional clients. One group treats the drawdown as a chance to rebalance and dollar-cost average into the asset, he said, while another cohort of large capital holders is waiting for firmer regulatory frameworks before committing funds.

Related: Bitcoin’s Market Outlook Divides Analysts as Price Struggles Below Peak 

CoinGecko Data Backs the Comparison

Research published by CoinGecko in late June measured the current bear market at a maximum drawdown of 51.2% from the all-time high of US$124,773 (AU$179,673), and called it the mildest on record so far, with the caveat that it may not be over. The same analysis clocked the downturn at 233 days as of June 24, against 385 days for the 2018-19 bear, which bottomed 83.6% below its peak, and 381 days for the 2022-23 cycle, which fell 76.7%.

Bitcoin has since undercut the June low CoinGecko used, touching about US$57,700 (AU$83,088) in early July before rebounding.

CryptoQuant Sees a Bear-Market Bounce

CryptoQuant’s report concluded a sustainable rally would require its Bull Score Index to climb above 60. The gauge, which tracks on-chain activity, market conditions and valuation metrics, sits at 20, and the firm treats readings below 40 as bearish.

The firm attributed the bounce partly to July seasonality, citing gains of about 20% in July 2018 and 17% in July 2022, both bear-market years. Its report identified US$60,000 (AU$86,400) as the key support area reclaimed during the rebound. 

It also noted the Coinbase Premium Index has recovered from deeply negative early-June levels, and that 30-day demand has improved from a 650,000 BTC contraction, the steepest since 2022.

Bitcoin traded near US$63,900 (AU$92,062) on July 10, up about 3% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.

Related: XRP Ledger Upgrade Nears Activation as Validator Support Passes Key Threshold

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