Prediction markets give Bitcoin only a 9% chance of hitting 1 million by 2030 despite VanEck’s bullish forecast

A top investment analyst believes the world’s biggest cryptocurrency could reach a seven-figure value before the end of the decade, although prediction markets are less optimistic about the timeline.

Matthew Sigel, who leads digital asset research at VanEck, shared his outlook during a Wednesday interview on CNBC’s Halftime Report.

He said he expects Bitcoin to surpass $1 million sometime within the next five years.

Sigel compared the trend to the rise of video games, noting that an activity once associated mainly with younger audiences gradually became popular across every generation.

He pointed to the first time a central bank bought Bitcoin for its reserves as evidence of a major shift happening in how institutions view the cryptocurrency.

The forecast fits with VanEck’s overall outlook for Bitcoin’s future.

The firm has a base-case model showing the digital currency could hit $2.9 million by 2050, showing they expect strong growth over the long haul.

Sigel isn’t alone in making bullish calls about where Bitcoin’s price is headed. Analysts at Bernstein have made similar predictions, as has Matt Hougan, who serves as chief investment officer at Bitwise.

Eric Trump has also voiced optimistic views. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has published 2030 price targets that range from $710,000 in their base scenario to $1.5 million if things go really well.

Steep climb from current levels

But getting there won’t be easy based on where Bitcoin sits today.

The cryptocurrency was trading around $80,000 when Sigel made his comments. That means it would need to grow about 12 times its current value to reach the million-dollar target.

On Thursday, Bitcoin opened at $81,423.91, marking its highest opening price since January 31. It stayed near $81,000 even after pulling back slightly.

Over the past month, the asset has climbed 18.2%, though it’s still down 15.9% compared to a year ago. Bitcoin hit its all-time peak of $126,198.07 on Oct. 6, 2025.

Prediction markets show caution

While institutional analysts sound confident, prediction markets show that everyday traders aren’t nearly as sure about such rapid growth.

These platforms, where people bet on future events, have become popular ways to gauge what might happen, especially as huge amounts of money flow into the sector.

Kalshi, one prediction market platform, just raised $1 billion in a Series F funding round.

Coatue led the investment, which values the company at $22 billion.

The funding came after institutional trading volume on Kalshi jumped 800% over six months, showing more professional investors are using these contracts to manage risk.

Despite the rapid growth of these platforms, betting markets still assign relatively low odds to Bitcoin reaching the $1 million milestone anytime soon.

On the Manifold prediction platform, traders estimate a 27% chance that Bitcoin will hit $1 million during the 2040s, while the probability of it happening before 2030 is only 9%.

Meanwhile, Polymarket places the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 in 2026 at just 2%, compared with a 69% chance of it climbing to $90,000.

That cautious sentiment aligns with Sigel’s own view of Bitcoin’s behavior.

He described the cryptocurrency as a “highly cyclical asset” and emphasized that any path toward the $1 million level is unlikely to be steady or predictable.

“There are no bailouts in Bitcoin, so it’s going to be cycles along the way,” Sigel noted, making clear that while he sees it as a major trend, wild swings in price will happen.

Not all major investors are equally optimistic about Bitcoin’s future.

Ray Dalio has questioned its potential to serve as a global reserve asset, pointing to possible regulatory obstacles.

Gold supporter Peter Schiff has also pushed back against the idea that Bitcoin could replace traditional safe-haven investments.

Whether the cryptocurrency reaches a seven-figure valuation within five years or only after several decades remains a topic of debate between bullish institutional analysts and the more cautious traders participating in prediction markets.

There’s a middle ground between leaving money in the bank and rolling the dice in crypto. Start with this free video on decentralized finance.