The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October 2026, well above the 65,000 expected in a Reuters poll, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and average hourThe U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October 2026, well above the 65,000 expected in a Reuters poll, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and average hour

October 2026 Jobs Report: Payrolls Jump 165,000 and Unemployment Falls to 4.1% as December Hike Odds Rise

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Author: MEXC Editorial Team

2026/11/07 09:47

The report was released on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December rose after the release, while stocks closed higher on a rebound in chip shares.

October Jobs Report vs Expectations

Nonfarm payrolls: +165,000 vs +65,000 expected in a Reuters poll (+59,000 in a Dow Jones survey)
Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% expected, down from 4.2% in September
Average hourly earnings: +0.4% month over month vs +0.3% expected, to $38.00; +3.1% year over year
Revisions: August revised to +186,000 from +133,000 and September to +60,000 from +29,000, a combined +84,000
Labor force participation: 61.9%, from 61.8%

Key Takeaways

Payrolls beat the Reuters consensus by 100,000 and were more than three times the 12-month average of 48,000.
Upward revisions changed the picture of August and September, which had first looked weak.
Payrolls, the unemployment rate and wages all came in on the stronger side of forecasts.
CME FedWatch pricing for a December rate hike rose to about 77–79% from about 67–70% before the release, as reported by CNBC and Reuters.
MEXC index futures dipped about 0.25%–0.37% in the release minute, then traded flat until the U.S. open.

Where the Jobs Came From

Hiring was spread across several sectors in the BLS establishment survey:

Professional and business services: +70,000
Health care: +42,000
Transportation and warehousing: +25,000
Manufacturing: +19,000

The household survey was less strong. The number of people working part time for economic reasons rose by 339,000 to 4.8 million.

What It Means for the Fed

The Federal Reserve's next decision is on December 8–9, 2026. Before the release, futures-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at that meeting were about 67–70%, based on the CME FedWatch tool as cited by CNBC and Reuters.

After the report, those odds rose to about 77–79%. This reflects market pricing at the time, not a forecast of the Fed's decision.

One more jobs report, for November, is scheduled before the meeting, on December 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the BLS release schedule.

How Stocks, Yields and Gold Reacted

Stocks rose for the day, but the jobs report was not the only driver. Reuters attributed the morning gains to chip stocks recovering from Thursday's selloff, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 4.6%.

S&P 500: +0.31% to 7,376.86. It was up 1.0% at 10:21 a.m. ET before giving back most of the gain.
Nasdaq Composite: +1.09% to 24,579.42
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.46% to 51,285.73
Russell 2000: +0.89% to 2,754.11
QQQ: +1.40% to $656.10
Treasury yields: the 2-year rose 5 bp to 4.51%, and the 10-year rose 2 bp to 4.86% after touching 4.89% at 8:30 a.m.
VIX: 25.64, down 2.54 points
Gold: COMEX December gold settled at $4,079.5, down 0.83%

Short-term yields moved more than long-term yields, which is consistent with traders adding to bets on a near-term rate increase.

AI Stocks Bounce After Thursday's Rout

Several of the stocks hit hardest on November 5 recovered part of their losses:

IREN: +20.02%
AMD: +11.04%
Marvell (MRVL): +5.73%
Lumentum (LITE): +5.67%
Micron (MU): +5.12%
Bloom Energy (BE): +3.41%
Nvidia (NVDA): +2.78%
Broadcom (AVGO): +0.74%

How MEXC Index Futures Reacted at 8:30 a.m.

MEXC's SPX500_USDT, NAS100_USDT and US30_USDT perpetual futures were trading when the report came out, an hour before the U.S. cash market opened. Figures below come from MEXC's public futures API (1-minute candles) and are compared with each one's 8:29 a.m. ET close.

Before the release: SPX500_USDT was at 7,377.7, NAS100_USDT at 27,068 and US30_USDT at 51,118.51.
Release minute: the three futures fell as much as 0.25%, 0.37% and 0.27%, respectively, between 8:30 and 8:35 a.m.
Turnover: in the 8:30 minute, turnover was about 220,000 USDT for SPX500_USDT, 133,000 USDT for NAS100_USDT and 119,000 USDT for US30_USDT. That was 62, 15 and 20 times their average one-minute turnover from 8:00 to 8:29 a.m.
Until the open: prices traded close to their pre-release levels. At 9:30 a.m., SPX500_USDT was down 0.08% and NAS100_USDT down 0.03%.
After the open: all three rose as chip stocks rallied, reaching highs about 0.9% above their 8:29 levels. At 10:30 a.m., SPX500_USDT was up 0.40% and US30_USDT up 0.69%, while NAS100_USDT was down 0.19%.

Unlike the September report on October 2, when index futures rose in the first 30 minutes, the October report produced a brief dip and little net change before the cash open. Most of the morning move came after 9:30 a.m.

MEXC SPX500_USDT, NAS100_USDT and US30_USDT 1-minute closes from 8:00 to 10:30 a.m. ET on November 6, 2026, indexed to 100 at 8:29 a.m. Source: MEXC public futures API.

Following the Jobs Report Through MEXC

MEXC lists perpetual futures on major U.S. stock indexes, including SPX500_USDT, NAS100_USDT and US30_USDT. They trade around the clock and settle in USDT, so the reaction to data released before the U.S. open can be followed as it happens. See how to trade stock futures on MEXC.

Perpetual futures do not give ownership of the underlying index constituents, and they carry funding, leverage and liquidation risk.

FAQ

Did the October 2026 jobs report beat expectations?

Yes. Payrolls rose by 165,000, compared with 65,000 expected in a Reuters poll. The unemployment rate and wage growth were also on the stronger side of forecasts.

What was the unemployment rate in October 2026?

4.1%, down from 4.2% in September.

Will the Fed raise rates in December?

The decision is due on December 9. After the report, CME FedWatch pricing implied about a 77–79% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, as reported by CNBC and Reuters. That is market pricing, not a confirmed outcome.

How did the stock market react to the jobs report?

The S&P 500 closed up 0.31% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.09%, helped by a rebound in chip stocks. The Dow fell 0.46%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points.

When is the next jobs report?

The November 2026 report is scheduled for Friday, December 4, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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